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Macro side, the US tariff policy towards China eased this week, with the Trump administration stating mid-week that previous tariffs were too high and seeking renegotiation. The 10-year US Treasury bond temporarily stopped its decline and rebounded, but short-term market risk appetite remained extremely conservative. Expectations for a US Fed interest rate cut increased, and crude oil and gold prices rebounded. The market expects the S232 investigation to be finalized by the end of June 2025, with increased bets on a 25% investigation tariff, and the LME-Comex copper price spread widened again. Domestically, affected by reciprocal tariff policies, some companies saw LME copper return above $9,200/mt during the week, and SHFE copper also gradually rose back above 76,000 yuan/mt.
Fundamentals side, an unexpected accident occurred at the Antamina copper concentrate mine this week, with production briefly paused and then gradually resumed. On the other hand, several miners lowered their 2025 production guidance in Q1 reports, and spot TC for copper concentrates has not yet bottomed out. For copper cathode, domestic destocking continued significantly this week, but concerns remain about the sustainability of consumption after the continuous rise in copper prices. According to SMM, based on current order pickup volumes, the short-term consumption boom is expected to last until early May. Spot premiums continued to rise. At the same time, it was noted that due to the widening LME-Comex price spread, re-export activities for CME-registered brands have started again. The import shortage situation has initially materialized.
Looking ahead to next week, US April employment data and PCE indices will further reflect the process of bottoming out inflation. The US unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data will provide further guidance for interest rate cut expectations. The copper price recovery process continues, and on the fundamentals side, the supply-demand balance continues to tighten, with copper prices expected to continue rising amid mixed long and short positions. LME copper is expected to fluctuate between $9,200-9,500/mt, and SHFE copper between 76,000-78,500 yuan/mt. On the spot side, domestic registered warrants have been reduced to around 40,000 mt, and spot premiums continue to show an upward trend, with further upside room for domestic and international spot premiums. Spot prices against the SHFE copper 2505 contract are expected to fluctuate between a premium of 150-250 yuan/mt.
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